Week 14 Game Picks Cont.
Teams on Bye: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Indianappolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles12 Dec. 2021 4:05 p.m. ET Games
Lions @ Broncos
The Lions are coming off a galvanizing first win of the year, but the celebrations should come to an end this week in Denver. The Broncos are 3-1 vs NFC teams this season and have a stout defense that can stop Jared Goff and a Lions offense without RB De’Andre Swift. Expect Denver to play with a heavy heart following the sudden passing of former Bronco Demaryius Thomas.
Score: 27-20, Broncos Win.
Giants @ Chargers
Although the Chargers have alternated wins and losses in their last 6 games since their Week 7 bye, they should break that trend this week at home. The Giants will once again be without QB Daniel Jones so expect the offense to turn to the run game heavily. Interestingly enough though, no Giants RB or WR has scored a TD in their last 5 games, perhaps that could also change as Los Angeles has allowed 20+ points in 8 straight games… plenty of scores to potentially go around.
Ultimately, Justin Herbert and the Chargers should come out on top after a statement road win last week against the Bengals in a tightly packed AFC playoff race.
Score: 31-17, Chargers Win.
4:25 p.m. ET Games
49ers @ Bengals
San Francisco seems to be trending in the wrong direction heading into a key road matchup in Cincinnati. Both Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Burrow have had their fair share of ups and downs heading into this contest but look fairly similar when it comes to their efficiency…
QB Stats 2021 Season
Both teams are coming off ugly losses as they remain firmly in position to clinch a playoff spot, but the Bengals look like a team primed to bounce back. Inconsistency is what Cincinnati is as they are the first team since 2014 to win 4+ games by 19+ points and lose multiple games by 19+ points in a season. After last week’s loss, it’s tough to imagine this team doesn’t have what it takes to bounce back, especially going up against exploitable 49ers secondary.
San Franciso has 298 defensive pass interference (DPI) penalty yards and 464 total defensive penalty yards entering Week 14 (both most in NFL). On top of that veteran, CB Josh Norman is allowing a 125.7 passer rating when targeted this season (3rd-highest among CB with 200+ coverage snaps), per PFF.
Not only does Burrow look primed to bounce back but so does rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase after racking up a mere 40.8 rec YPG since week 8 compared to 107.7 rec YPG through the opening 7 weeks of the season.
Score: 32-27, Bengals Win.
Bills @ Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is going to win this game and it’s all going to be thanks to Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. The legendary duo is digging deep into their New England Patriot roots this week against a familiar foe in the Buffalo Bills.
Kevin C. Cox | Credit: Getty Images
To make matters worse for Buffalo, Brady is 67-16 in his career as a starter in the month of December, and 17-1 in his career vs the team allowing the lowest passer rating entering the week of the matchup. The Bills have also has shown flaws in their run defense as well so expect a big day from RB Leonard Fournette.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills should bounce back offensively, especially with the weather not playing a huge factor, but it’s worth noting Bills QBs age 25 or younger are 0-8 vs Tom Brady all-time (Allen is 0-3).
Score: 34-26, Bucs Win.
Sunday Night Football; 8:20 p.m. ET
Bears @ Packers
The Packers have won 10 straight regular-season games at home and have not lost to the Bears at Lambeau Field since 2015. Aaron Rodgers continues his dominance over his NFC North foes with a 22-5 record as a starter against Chicago.
The reigning MVP should have his way against a Bears defense that has allowed a 100+ passer rating in 6 of their last 7 games (1-6 record). The Packers coming off a bye week makes this all the more lopsided as they chase the top seed in the NFC for the second consecutive season.
Score: 34-16, Packers Win.
13 Dec. 2021 Monday Night Football
Rams @ Cardinals
The Cardinals sit atop the NFC with the No. 1 seed, but a pivotal divisional matchup against the Rams awaits on Monday night. Since these two teams’ last meeting, Los Angeles acquired LB Von Miller and WR Odell Beckham Jr. However, that hasn’t translated to wins much lately and this team is in need of a statement win.
Monday night’s matchup provides them the outlet to turn their season around. The Rams are 8-0 when allowing 24 points or fewer this season (0-4 when allowing 25+ points) and interestingly enough, Matthew Stafford is 7-0 this season in games with a 100+ passer rating (1-4 with sub-100 rating).
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images
A statistic that seems too tough to ignore though is Stafford’s 5-62 record (.075) in his career, incl. playoffs vs teams that won 10+ games that season (lost 15 straight). If the Rams are able to protect their star QB and get the ball in the hands of Cooper Kupp and Odell Bekcham Jr. then this team can stay in it.
Especially against a Cardinal team that has no clear-cut No. 1 WR with DeAndre Hopkins who is yet to have a 100-yard receiving game this season. Jalen Ramsey and the Rams defense could come to play in primetime and make life for Kyler Murray tough.
