Week 17 Game Picks
2 Jan. 2022 1:00 p.m. ET Game
Eagles @ Washington
The Eagles have won six of their last eight games, including three straight as Washington arguably looks like the worst team in the league over the last two weeks. The Football Team took on the Eagles and Cowboys in the last two weeks allowing 41.5 PPG and 508.0 total YPG in those two games. Philadelphia should have no problem completing the season sweep on Sunday en route to clinching a playoff berth.
Philadelphia clinches a playoff berth with:
PHI win + MIN loss or tie + NO loss or tie OR
PHI win + MIN loss or tie + SF win or tie OR
PHI tie + MIN loss + NO loss + ATL loss or tie OR
PHI tie + MIN loss + NO tie + ATL loss or tie + SF win or tie
Score: 27-17, Eagles Win.
Dolphins @ Titans
It’s a revenge week for Ryan Tannehill as he takes on his former Dolphins’ squad. Miami has won seven straight since starting the season 1-7 surging into the No. 7 seed of the AFC. Meanwhile, the Titans are on the verge of clinching a playoff berth but the team certainly has their eyes on the No. 1 seed. Two wins and a Chiefs loss in the final two weeks of the regular season would give Tennessee the top seed in the AFC. Before getting ahead of themselves, Tannehill will have to take on a stout Miami defense.
Dolphins Stats 2021
The offense has slightly improved in terms of consistency, but Tua Tagovailoa went from tossing seven touchdowns and five interceptions through weeks 1-8 and has since tossed a mere eight touchdowns and four interceptions. The Titans’ secondary has the ability to force some turnovers and more importantly capitalize on them. The marquee matchup of this game is WR A.J. Brown against CB Xavien Howard.
Howard is 1 of 2 players to allow a 0.0 passer rating on tight-window targets this season (min. 15 such targets). Meanwhile, Brown is 1 of 3 players with a 100+ passer rating when targeted on such plays. You’ve got to go with the benefit of the latter based on how Brown looked last week but one of the two sides needs to give way.
The Dolphins are 19-7 in Nov-Jan since Brian Flores became head coach in 2019 (4-17 in Sept-Oct in that span), but ultimately, Mike Vrabel knows how to rally his squad after two consecutive trips to the postseason.
Tennessee clinches AFC South division title with:
TEN win OR
IND loss OR
TEN tie + IND tie
Tennessee clinches playoff berth with:
TEN tie OR
LAC loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR
LAC loss or tie + NE loss or tie OR
BAL loss or tie + NE loss or tie
Score: 24-16, Titans Win.
Bucs @ Jets
The defending champs have clinched a playoff berth and are now playing for seeding in the NFC. Meanwhile, New York is once again on the outside looking in and taking on a familiar foe in Tom Brady who is 29-6 in his career vs Jets. It’s worth noting Brady also has a record of 22-5 in his career vs rookie QBs.
Score: 34-17, Bucs Win.
Chiefs @ Bengals
In perhaps the biggest matchup of the week, and potentially season depending on the result of this game, the Bengals and Chiefs clash in what looks like a high-scoring affair. The Bengals are averaging 27.3 PPG this season, their most since 1988. In fact, Cincinnati is the only team in NFL history with a 4,000+ yard passer, a 1,000+ yard rusher, and multiple 1,000+ yard receivers all age 25 or younger.
It’s safe to say that Kansas City’s defense may finally meet their rightful match. The team showed some flaws recently against the Chargers and the Bengals have the ability to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes’ offense. This game is going to come down to third downs and if the Bengals can come up with a stop.
The Chiefs (51.7 pct) are on pace to become the first team to convert 50+ pct of 3rd downs since the 2011 Saints. If this game was in Kansas City, I would be tempted to pick the Chiefs, but if we were to get bold this week, it’s going to be this game. Joe Burrow is coming off a career day and the Bengals have talent all across the board to pull out the win. Here are the playoff scenarios coming out of this matchup…
Kansas City clinches AFC's No. 1 seed, only first-round bye and homefield advantage with:
KC win + TEN loss or tie OR
KC tie + TEN loss
Cincinnati clinches AFC North division title with:
CIN win OR
CIN tie + BAL loss or tie OR
BAL loss + CLE-PIT tie
Cincinnati clinches playoff berth with:
CIN tie + LAC loss + LV loss + MIA loss or tie OR
CIN tie + LAC loss + LV loss + NE loss OR
CIN tie + LAC loss + LV tie + MIA loss or tie + NE win OR
CIN tie + LAC loss + LV tie + NE tie + MIA tie + BUF win or tie OR
CIN tie + LAC loss + LV tie + NE loss + MIA win + BUF win or tie
Score: 37-34, Bengals Win.
Rams @ Ravens
In a pivotal interconference matchup, the Ravens find themselves in trouble. Although Baltimore is 3-0 all-time in regular-season home games in the month of January, the sample size is too small. On top of that, the secondary has been hit with the injury bug and it’s going to be an uphill battle as the Ravens have allowed 10 different 100-yard receivers this season (most in NFL). Los Angeles should exploit that with Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr, and potentially Van Jefferson’s big playability.
Norm Hall | Credit: Getty Images
It’s worth noting that Matthew Stafford is 1-20 (.048) in his career vs teams that entered the game with 8+ wins, the lowest QB win pct in the NFL since 1970 (min. 10 such starts), but with Lamar Jackson’s health as a big question mark and an injury battered defense, it’s tough to see the Rams lose this game. Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff berth but has their eyes set on the NFC West title.
Los Angeles Rams clinch NFC West division title with:
LAR win + ARI loss or tie OR
LAR tie + ARI loss
Score: 28-23, Rams Wins.
Jaguars @ Patriots
Jacksonville heads to Gillette Stadium for the first time since the 2018 AFC Championship game, but this time around its two rookie quarterbacks battling it out on the gridiron. Both Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones were drafted in the first round but it comes by no surprise that Bill Belichick’s draftee is doing better than the No. 1 overall pick.
QB Stats 2021
Rookie QBs are not only 8-24 against Belichick-coached team but the Jaguars are 0-6 on the road vs Patriots in the Belichick era. Expect New England to clinch their first playoff berth in the post-Tom Brady era.
New England clinches playoff berth with:
NE win + MIA loss or tie OR
NE win + LV loss or tie OR
NE tie + MIA loss + LV loss + LAC loss or tie OR
NE tie + MIA loss + BAL loss or tie OR
NE tie + LV loss + LAC loss + BAL loss + PIT loss or tie OR
NE tie + LV loss + LAC loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA win + BUF win
Score: 27-13, Patriots Win.
Falcons @ Bills
Josh Allen is looking more like himself with the offense clicking on all cylinders as Buffalo sits atop the AFC East. This week the team should show no signs of slowing down against the Falcons. In fact, the Bills last 16 wins have been by 10+ points. Buffalo could clinch a playoff berth but may have to wait a week to clinch the AFC East.
Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:
BUF win + BAL loss or tie OR
BUF win + LAC loss or tie + LV loss or tie OR
BUF tie + MIA loss or tie + LAC loss + LV loss OR
BUF tie + MIA loss or tie + LAC loss or tie + BAL loss + PIT loss or tie OR
BUF tie + MIA loss or tie + LV loss or tie + BAL loss + PIT loss or tie OR
BUF tie + NE loss or tie + LAC Loss + LV loss OR
BUF tie + NE loss or tie + LAC loss or tie + BAL loss + PIT loss or tie OR
BUF tie + NE loss or tie + LV loss or tie + BAL loss + PIT loss or tie OR
BUF tie + LAC loss + LV loss + BAL loss + PIT loss or tie
Score: 30-16, Bills Win.
Raiders @ Colts
Indianapolis is 8-2 in their last 10 games allowing a mere 18.8 PPG as the Raiders have allowed just 14 points or fewer in two straight games. It could be a low-scoring affair as Indy will once again rely on RB Jonathan Taylor who should carry them to victory. Besides the Raiders have lost 7 straight games in Week 16 or later when their opponent enters the game with a winning record. The Colts are 1 of 2 teams to have a 2-0 or better record against teams with 8+ wins entering the matchup this season. Indy shows up when it matters most as Las Vegas is quite frankly the opposite.
Indianapolis clinches a playoff berth with:
IND win OR
IND tie + BAL loss + NE loss or tie OR
IND tie + BAL loss + MIA loss or tie
Score: 24-20, Colts Win.
Giants @ Bears
New York has lost four straight games and this game is practically meaningless for both squads. It’s worth noting that the Bears traded their first-round pick in the 2022 Draft to the Giants as part of the draft night trade-up for QB Justin Fields in 2021. This game is a win-win scenario for the Giants as they should see one of their two draft picks move up a spot.
