The Sin City Draft Mailbag

28 April 2022

The next generation of talent is set to take center stage in Las Vegas as the 2022 NFL draft will be underway with talent mainly on the defensive side of the ball alongside a fair share of depth at the wide receiver position. As for the quarterbacks, it’s looking like a hit or miss class for the most part as some teams are high on signal-callers whereas other teams view them as day two picks at best.

The vast difference in this year’s draft makes it one of the most unpredictable in recent history as notable talent can be taken higher than expected or slide well out of the top half of the board for a contender to swoop in for a draft-day steal.

With the first pick…

It all starts with the top pick that for the second consecutive season belongs to the Jaguars. Last season the not-so-winning franchise drafted QB Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 pick and after locking up their blind-side tackle to a three-year deal, Jacksonville will most certainly shift their attention to the defensive side of the ball.

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Team owner Shad Khan is "leaning toward" Michigan’s Aiden Hutchinson while general manager Trent Baalke "seems to be infatuated” with Georgia’s Travon Walker, per Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports. Although Walker is just as formidable of a pick as Hutchinson, I’d be surprised if the Jags pass up on the Michigan star. On top of that, Big Ten pass-rushers have had a fair share of success in the NFL with Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa, Chase Young, and Micah Parsons among notable names.

Meanwhile, the Lions who pick second overall have the potential to pull off a stunner and draft a QB but it seems more likely they’ll have Jared Goff at the helm for at least one more season. That should shift Dan Cambell’s attention to the defensive side of the ball where Walker or Hutchinson (whoever isn’t taken first overall) could land. It’s safe to bet against Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux as one NFL executive told MMQB’s Albert Breer that he heard Campbell “isn’t a fan” of Thibodeaux. However, a week after that report had surfaced, Pro Football Talk’s Peter King said he’s heard the Lions are “smitten” with Thibodeaux. So perhaps the initial report may have been smoke, but ultimately, it’s tough to envision Detroit passing up on Walker or Hutchinson at No. 2.

Houston sitting at No. 3 seems in a prime position to either take an offensive lineman to protect second-year QB Davis Mills or look into drafting Thibodeaux or star CB Sauce Gardner. Houston has long lacked a defensive star and with the No. 3 pick, there’s an endless amount of talent. There’s slight wiggle room for the Texans picking this early as they will be on the clock again at No. 13.

It also opens the possibility up for a potential deal as ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler noted that the 11-14 range in the first round could be a "sweet spot" for some trades. Texans GM Nick Caserio said there’s “maybe 50%-60% chance” the team stands pat at the No. 13 pick but everything is available at the right price… if Houston stays put though and takes an offensive lineman with their top selection, they most certainly will draft a defensive player at No. 13.

Meanwhile, the two New York franchises (Jets and Giants) will pick respectively at the No. 4 and No. 5 spot. A player both teams like is Florida State pass-rusher Jermaine Johnson II, who is "seeming more like a top-10 lock now," according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. However, No. 4 or No. 5 seems a bit high as the Jets seem in the perfect place to have Sauce Gardner available or in the off chance, Walker if he somehow slides to that spot. Thibodeaux is also an option but ultimately Robert Saleh, who is a defensive-minded head coach, can’t pass up on the opportunity to improve a secondary in need of a pro-bowl caliber defensive back.

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

There’s a good chance the top four picks are all defensive players which is where I expect the Giants to break the trend at No. 5. QB Daniel Jones seems to be stuck in a never-ending rebuild and former No. 2 pick RB Saquon Barkley is in serious need of a bounce-back season. With that being said, this New York squad should land one of the top offensive linemen in the draft like Ickey Ekwonu and Charles Cross as the two most notable names.

New York has to go with offensive lineman as the Panthers, who pick one spot behind them at No. 6, could get a top lineman as well if they aren’t the first team to draft a signal-caller. It’s a strategic plan for New York as they will only have to wait for one pick and they can nab a defensive stud like Thibodeaux or even a defensive back like Derek Stingley Jr. at the No. 7 spot.

It would be surprising to see the Giants go after a wideout that early when there are bigger needs on the roster, but following the departure of TE Evan Engram and potentially trading wideouts Kadarius Toney and/or Darius Slayton is too tough to ignore. Big Blue should revisit the idea of taking a wideout in the second or third round of the draft with their focus on offensive lineman and defense with their top two picks.

Trade Time and Quarterbacks… 

There’s better than a good chance that we are going to see a whole lot of movement in the opening round of the talent and it all could start at the No. 6 pick with Carolina. The team has notified current starting QB Sam Darnold that “there’s a pretty good chance” they may draft a QB, however, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler noted that Carolina could trade back, as they don’t have a second or third-round pick, and target a QB later in the first round with Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett as their top choice. Fowler added the following:

"Kenny Pickett is a player they've done a lot of homework on. They like him, they believe he fits Ben McAdoo's offense and he's ready to play now, which is what the Panthers need with Matt Rhule coming off two losing seasons."

It all depends on who is desperate enough to move up to the No. 6 spot that’s picking in the teens. The organization has to play it smart as a team like New Orleans could stun everyone and take a QB like Pickett if he begins to slide, similar to how Mac Jones slid to New England last year.

The Falcons and Seahawks picking at the No. 8 and No. 9 spot respectively could also nab a signal-caller but it’s unlikely that player will be Pickett. Atlanta signed Marcus Mariota shortly after trading Matt Ryan so they could gut it out for one season and revisit next year’s QB class which makes No. 8 a great spot to pick a defensive player. Meanwhile, Seattle has "received calls from teams" looking to trade up for the No. 9 spot in the 2022 NFL draft, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. If they stay pat, it seems likely to be another defensive player off the board like pass-rusher Jermaine Johnson II, however, Folwer noted that the team would consider taking Liberty QB Malik Willis with the No. 9 pick if he’s available. If not the team also likes North Carolina QB Sam Howell, who seems to be looking more like a day 2 pick, per Fowler

Deebo Drama + Draft WRs

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Following the top nine picks, we start getting into a flurry of wide receivers coming off the board with it all starting at the No. 10 pick. The Jets will be back on the clock, but it’s worth noting that they may not even make that pick as it’s being used as the centerpiece in discussions for 49ers star wideout Deebo Samuel. It’s been reported that "most people" around the league consider the Jets to be the "front-runners" for Samuel, although "some teams" don't expect San Francisco to move him anytime soon.

The Lions and Packers are among teams also showing interest, but a source told Fowler that it would take "so much" to trade Samuel to the Packers because of the NFC rivalry between the teams and the friendly rivalry between Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.

Regardless of what happens on the Deebo front, the Jets look primed to take the top wideout with the No. 10 pick which looks to be Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson. Washington should follow that selection by going after Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, whom they are big fans of. However, if the Jets don’t take Wilson at No. 10, the Commanders could take Wilson at No. 11 or surprise everyone and take Chris Olave solely for the Ohio State ties to current Washington star WR Terry McLaurin.

We then may not see a wideout come off the board until the Eagles pick at No. 15 and the Chargers at No. 17. Philly drafted Heisman trophy winner DeVonta Smith last year, and this year they could get his fellow Alabama teammate Jameson Williams who is recovering from a torn ACL. Williams could be the steal of the draft as he’s expected to be the second or third wideout off the board. Meanwhile, the Chargers could get a defensive player at No. 17, however, with the additions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson in free agency, it may not hurt to add a top wideout like USC’s Drake London or Olave who should be available as well.

Michael Hickey | Credit: Getty Images

A trade may not be ruled out for fringe contenders like the Packers, Cowboys, or Steelers to trade up. Green Bay and Dallas could potentially add a wide receiver as both squads traded away Davante Adams and Amari Cooper respectively, so getting a wideout seems more like a need than a want. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh should explore trading up only if they plan to draft a QB. Malik Willis is a name to keep an eye on as Mike Tomlin has met with the Liberty QB for a majority of the draft process.

Apart from wide receivers, the picks in the 20s should see notable filler picks as some of the top contenders will shift their attention to needs rather than “best available” with the Chiefs being the most likely team to trade up from their respective picks (No. 29, No. 30) and the Bills looking at taking one of the draft’s top running backs…

Once everything is said and done, some of these predictions may come true, others maybe not so much. One thing I can guarantee is that each of these prolific athletes that I have mentioned will be living out their dream… playing in the NFL. From me to the 259 draft picks and to those that go undrafted, It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

That’s all from theFanalyst for the 2021-22 season/offseason!