Eastern Conference Round 1
[1] Heat vs. [8] Hawks
Another year, another opportunity for Trae Young to be public enemy No. 1, this time in South Beach, Miami. After winning two straight play-in games, sending the Hornets and the Cavs home, the Hawks have clinched the lowest seed in the Eastern Conference. That leads them straight down south to Miami to take on the top-seeded Heat in a matchup that may seem a lot tougher than it seems for either squad.
Atlanta may simply ride on to the hope of Young carrying them in every single game en route to a huge upset as the Heat will come into the series underestimating not just the Hawks, but their star point guard as well… have it be the former or the latter, they both would be a mistake.
Young is indubitably the most lethal scorer among these two teams averaging 28.4 points and 9.7 assists while shooting 46% from the field. However, the next closest scorer on the Hawks has been Bogdan Bogdanovic averaging just 15.1 PPG this season which would rank fourth on Miami’s roster behind Jimmy Butler (21.4 PPG), Tyler Herro (20.7 PPG), and Bam Adebayo (19.1 PPG).
Lynne Sladky/Associated Press
Despite Young’s ability to absolutely take over a game, the Heat have a disciplined roster that can match up well against Atlanta defensively. Offensively, they have options in Butler, Herro, Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo, so there shouldn’t be much of a concern on how the Heat will match Young’s scoring stat line.
Ultimately for the Hawks, without a true big man, their postseason run will likely be cut short. John Collins has been sidelined since March 18th and now Clint Capela could be limited after suffering a hyperextended knee in Friday’s play-in victory. It’s possible the Hawks play it safe and hold him out of the first game or two (if need be) which would give Miami a golden opportunity to take a 2-0 lead on their home court. I’ll give credit where it’s due and expect Young and the Hawks to steal a game or two at best as a first-round exit looks too surreal for the top-seeded Heat. Perhaps “Ice Trae” can prove me wrong and make another unexpected postseason run…
Prediction: Heat in 6
[2] Celtics vs. [7] Nets
Boston and Brooklyn is shaping out to be the rivalry we never asked for but still got solely after Kyrie Irving’s infamous departure during the 2019 offseason. Since then the two franchises met once in the postseason which happened to be a year ago when the Nets defeated the Celtics in six games. For the second straight postseason, the first-round will feature a Nets-Celtics series, with this sequel likely more entertaining than the first go-around.
For starters, both franchises have a pair of players averaging at least 23 PPG, with the Nets having the higher of the four stars in Irving and Kevin Durant. However, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown make up a duo that should not be underestimated, even when compared to the skillset of Durant and Irving…
2021-22 Season Stats
Durant is indubitably the best of the four players, however, Boston for the first time in a while looks like they have the roster to slow down the two-time Finals MVP. The rise of big man Robert Williams could be the key to giving Boston a fighting chance in this series, however, his return would only come on the backend of the series, shifting the advantage back to Brooklyn.
Although this series is most certainly going to come down to how Irving, Durant, Tatum, and Brown perform respectively for their squads, Brooklyn is going to turn to Seth Curry and Patty Mills to step up as Boston will look towards Marcus Smart to set the tone. Curry has emerged as the Nets’ third option alongside Mills as the team’s sharpshooter from beyond the arc with both players shooting above 40%. Brown and Tatum should have their hands full with Irving and Durant allowing a third star to make the Celtics pay down the stretch.
Bruce Brown is another notable name to keep an eye on, earning his minutes after showing his worth on both sides of the ball. The 6'4" guard has averaged 14.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists through the last 20 contests of the regular season. He can match up well with Smart who has averaged 13.1 points, 7.2 assists, and 3.5 rebounds in the same span.
Ultimately, Boston can and will live up to their postseason expectations as they have a 35-12 record since December 31, 2021 thanks to a 106.9 defensive rating which ranks No. 2 in the league, and a 114.4 offensive rating that ranks first… They find a way to win games and they won’t go away easily. It’s just their bad luck that they got paired with a first-round matchup against the star-studded Nets that could welcome Ben Simmons to the lineup in the backend of the series, creating more mismatches. If any series in the first round should go to seven games, it’s going to be this one, but for the sake of believing in one squad over another, I envision this series going to six games with Brooklyn closing out at home. If it were to go to a Game 7 in TD Garden, it’s going to be a toss-up game. Regardless, I’m going to hate seeing either one of these Eastern Conference juggernauts dismissed in the opening round of the postseason.
Prediction: Nets in 6
[3] Bucks vs. [6] Bulls
The defending champs are ready to run it back and it all starts with a favorable opening round against the Bulls. The Chicago squad is just below has a record below .500 since the new year started (24-26 since December 31, 2021) and the sixth-worst record since the all-star break.
Things won’t be so pleasant against the Bucks, a team Chicago has failed to beat since May 16th, 2021 (0-4 vs. Bucks this season). A lot needs to go right for the Bulls to have a fighting chance in this series, but against Giannis Antetokounpo and his running mates Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, there’s a whole lot that can go wrong…
2021-22 Season Stats
The Bucks’ big three have kept their foot on the gas all season long and have no plans of slowing down against a Bulls team they beat by a margin of 14.8 PPG (4 games) in a season-sweep. It’s surprising to see DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Nikola Vucevic average 27.9, 24.4, and 17.6 PPG respectively, yet Milwaukee looks too tough for them to beat in a best-of-seven series.
Although it’s easy to envision a sweep to open the playoffs for the defending champs, I’ll give Chicago a chance to steal Game 3 or Game 4 on their home court extending this to a 5-game series with Antetokounpo and the squad wrapping things up at home.
Prediction: Bucks in 5
[4] 76ers vs. [5] Raptors
Before buying into Shaquille ‘O Neal’s initial comments on the Raptors getting swept in the opening round of the postseason, let’s put things into perspective! For starters, he has a point, as Toronto is simply not good enough to ultimately win this series down the stretch despite stacking up well against Philadelphia. Although it may seem like the Raptors aren’t getting enough credit, the 76ers are just that good and find themselves in a favorable matchup. Joel Embiid is putting up MVP numbers leading to his 2021-22 scoring champion title. He’s going to be a matchup nightmare for a Raptors squad that will likely put Pascal Siakam on the Cameroon big man.
However, Toronto will have to worry about a deadly backcourt with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey who are both shooting above 40% from the field while averaging 21.0 PPG and 17.5 PPG respectively. Although Harden has had an ugly postseason history, having Embiid and Maxey at his disposal allows the former MVP to play smart, racking up assists.
David Berding | Credit: Getty Images
The 76ers can get out to a strong 3-1 start over the opening four games, and perhaps Toronto can make it a series and force a Game 6 to go out in a respectable fashion but winning the opening two games is going to be the key for Philadephia. Why? Lockdown perimeter defender Matisse Thybulle will be unavailable to play games 3, 4, and 6 (if needed) in Toronto as he is considered an unvaccinated individual. His absence on the defensive side of the ball may allow sharpshooters Gary Trent Jr. and Fred VanVleet to have formidable performances at home.
Harden’s postseason growing pains paired with Thybulle’s absence in nearly half of this series will play a factor in the Raptors staying alive until Game 6.
