Western Conference Round 1
[1] Suns vs. [8] Pelicans
Arguably the most lopsided matchup of the opening round and it comes as no surprise that the defending Western Conference champs are on the favorable end of the stick. Phoenix has been hot all year long en route to a franchise-record 64-win season, but as the great Kobe Bryant always said, “job’s not finished,” something Devin Booker, who idolized Bryant, takes into account every season.
Ross D. Franklin | Credit: AP
Following Phoenix’s shortcomings in last season’s trip to the Finals, the squad arguably looks better than they were a year ago. Head coach Monty Williams has a roster that ranks fourth in the league in offensive rating (114.8) and third in defensive rating (107.3). Although Booker is the rightful face of the franchise, veteran Chris Paul is playing as well as he can to create a lethal backcourt and compliment the play of big man DeAndre Ayton. Defensively, Mikal Bridges is the top player to watch when trying to lock down CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram in this matchup.
The emerging scoring duo in New Orleans has found their footing down the stretch averaging 24.3 points and 22.7 points respectively. McCollum brings a fair share of playoff experience to the table from his time in Portland as Ingram will make his postseason debut. Although there’s firepower on the offensive end, the team lacks a true third star to match up against some of these top-tier teams in the league which is where the absence of Zion Williamson is felt.
Sure, New Orleans has shown flashes of promise, but Phoenix looks too damn good to even drop a game in this series. I envision this to be the lone sweep in the opening round of the playoffs.
Prediction: Suns in 4
[2] Grizzlies vs. [7] Timberwolves
If you want an electrifying matchup and the potential face(s) of the NBA in the near future, tuning into this Memphis-Minnesota tilt will keep you entertained all four quarters game in and game out. Ja Morant and Anthony Edwards are two of the most fascinating young stars (to say the least) in the league. Either one of them has the potential to single-handily take over and shift the momentum of a game.
2021-22 Season Stats
Evaluating what Morant and Edwards bring to the table is fairly simple in a head-to-head matchup as both squads will go as far as these two guards respectively take them. Morant is the far more dynamic scorer (and player) compared to Edwards giving him and the Grizzlies the upper hand in this matchup (rightfully so as the No. 2 seed).
As if Morant, who is the first guard to lead the league in points in the paint, isn’t a problem enough, a supporting cast of Dillon Brooks, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson, who all average at least 16 PPG while shooting above 40% from the field, should give the T-Wolves a handful.
In fact, the Grizzlies’ offense ranks 1st in paint scoring and fastbreak points, and their defense sits atop the league in rebounds, steals, and blocks. Edwards, Towns, and Russell are going to need to stay disciplined and get creative to make more plays down the stretch on offense. Edwards and Russell seemed to adjust well when the going got rough in the play-in when Towns fouled out, outscoring the Clippers 23-11 to close out, however, that’s not going to cut it in a 7-game series.
One thing that’s a given: Memphis is young and does not have much postseason experience which is why a matchup against the Timberwolves, who are arguably just as inexperienced (sorry Patrick Beverley) is exactly what the Grizzlies need…
Minnesota has the ability to steal a game or two at most, but ultimately, I envision Memphis getting off to a 3-1 lead through the first four games and eventually closing out the series at home in Game 5 or Game 6 in Minnesota. I’m going to go with the latter and not get too confident in the young squad heading into a second-round that will be against the Nuggets or Warriors…
Prediction: Grizzlies in 6
[3] Warriors vs. [6] Nuggets
The Warriors are back…The Golden State Warriors are in the playoffs and the Nuggets are the first team to venture into Chase Center for postseason play, the heir and hopeful second coming of Oracle Arena. Pair that up with in-house talents Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson making their return to the postseason for the first time since their 2019 run that ended in a Game 6 Finals loss to the Raptors that thwarted a coveted three-peat for Golden State.
It was the 13th of June in 2019, a day Warrior fans hate to reminisce. Just 72 hours ahead of Game 6 in Oracle, Kevin Durant had played his final minutes as a Warrior… 9:53 seconds left in the first half of Game 5 of the 2019 NBA Finals, a 6 foot-10 inch, 240-pound forward found himself defeated. MRI’s later revealed that Durant had suffered a torn Achilles and he went on to depart that offseason out East to Brooklyn.
Meanwhile, Thompson and the Warriors defended home court in Game 6, in hopes of forcing a game 7. With 2:22 left in the third quarter, up 83-80, the All-Star guard got free behind the defense on a fast break and went airborne for a layup only to get fouled, falling to the ground grimacing in pain, nursing his left knee. Thompson returned back to the floor to knock down two free throws until checking out for the day. That would be the first of his two injury-riddled seasons that followed as Thompson suffered a torn ACL, made a full recovery ahead of the 2019-20 campaign and suffered a torn Achilles knocking him out for the following 2020-21 campaign. Without him, Golden State went on to miss back-to-back postseasons, until now.
So is this matchup one the Warriors are ready for? Hell yes, and this isn’t some feel-good story where the fans or the franchise views making the postseason as a successful season. It’s been a golden standard in the Bay Area since 2015 when the Warriors won their first championship since 1973. Every postseason the Warriors have played in since their 2015 title, they have reached the Finals hardwood, so best believe this team is eyeing their fourth Larry O’Brien in the last seven seasons.
It all starts with getting four wins against a Denver squad that shouldn’t be taken for granted. It all starts and ends with Nikola Jokic, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists. Here’s a closer look at how Jokic stacks up against the Warriors’ respective leaders in points (Curry), rebounds (Green), and assists (Green).
2021-22 Season Stats
The “do-it-all” Serbian big man has put together yet another MVP-caliber season, but the lack of a supporting cast could result in a short-lived postseason run. For starters, the next closest scorer and rebounder to Jokic’s 27.7 and 13.8 respectively is fellow big man, Aaron Gordon who is averaging just 15.0 PPG and 5.9 RPG this season. Not exactly a favorable matchup against a team with defensive guru Draymond Green calling the shots, keeping the Warriors atop the league in defensive rating.
Denver ranks 15th in defensive rating which gives Golden State’s 17th ranked offensive rating a little bit of wiggle room. Expect Steve Kerr to exploit that to the best of his ability, especially with the roster he has.
2021-22 Season Stats
Curry, who is indubitably the Warriors' most lethal scorer, has been out since March 17th after injuring his foot diving for a loose ball with Celtics’ Marcus Smart. Fortunately, the 3-time champ is on track to suit up and start the opening game of this series against the Nuggets, but he will be on a minutes restriction.
"He's not playing 30, 35 minutes,” head coach Steve Kerr said. Kerr added that Curry will start they will “figure out” the pattern from there. It’s going to be something to monitor all series long, but as long as Curry is available in a limited capacity, Golden State should take care of business in no more than six games. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Warriors wrap things up at home in Game 5, but rolling with a six-game series seems like the safer bet.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
[4] Mavericks vs. [5] Jazz
Perhaps one of the most underrated matchups in the opening round of the playoffs takes us to Dallas where the Mavs will host their first playoff series for the first time since 2011, the last time they hoisted the Larry O’Brien. However, history this time doesn’t seem so promising to repeat itself as they will have to start the series off without star Luka Doncic, who is expected to miss Game 1 of the series and significant concern remains for his availability in Game 2.
Similar to the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic, Doncic leads the Mavs in points (28.4), rebounds (9.1), and assists (8.7). Replacing him is going to be borderline impossible for the Mavericks against a Utah team that has their own star power with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert at the helm complemented by the likes of Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, and Bojan Bogdanovic.
2021-22 Season Stats
Doncic being out complicates things for the Mavs this series, especially to start the opening two games at home. Utah can get out to a 3-1 lead through the first four games with Doncic potentially out for Game 1 and 2, making a return in Game 3 that will be played in Utah.
The Mavs have emerged as a team that can be trusted in postseason play, especially with Doncic at the helm, however, with his health in question, it’s tough to envision
Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Tim Hardaway Jr. stepping up big time and go possession for possession with Mitchell and his supporting cast. If I’d want any team to prove me wrong in the western conference, it’s the Mavericks to overcome Donicic’s absence early in the series and take Utah to seven games. If that were the case, it’s tough to bet against Luka, but with his health up in the air, Utah could pull away in a nail-biting series.
