Conference Semifinals Preview
1 May 2022
If you’re playing NBA basketball in May, chances are you’re a pretty good team… Following the conclusion of the opening round of the playoffs, the 2022 postseason is down to the final eight teams (four in each conference) battling it out in a best-of-seven series with a trip to the conference finals on the line…
Celtics [2] vs. Bucks [3]
Boston. Milwaukee. It doesn’t get better between these two heavyweight Eastern Conference powerhouses (to say the least). Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown look like one of the most deadly backcourts in the NBA, especially watching their two-way capabilities in their opening-round sweep over the star-studded Brooklyn Nets. Now the East’s number two seed is set to play host to the defending champs, who completed a gentlemen’s sweep against the Chicago Bulls.
Although Milwaukee’s first-round win was just as respectable as Boston’s, the injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s right-hand man, Khris Middleton is a loss that looks tough to overcome against a tenacious Celtics’ defense that rightfully has the defensive player of the year, Marcus Smart. However, the return of big man Robert Williams alongside Al Horford will be the key names to watch when trying to contain Antetokounmpo.
The reigning Finals MVP saw an average of 33.6 minutes per game in the first round vs. the Bulls and averaged 28.6 PPG, 13.4 RPG, and 6.2 APG while shooting 56.8% from the field. Dominant is an understatement, but Antetokounmpo, alongside Jrue Holiday, is going to have to keep his foot on the gas with Middleton likely out for the entirety of this matchup.
2022 Playoff Stats
Boston not only has two players that not only invite the isolation but know how to close games on both sides of the ball. Tatum and Brown should see a far tougher matchup than the one the Nets presented in the last series, especially on the perimeter and paint with Holiday and Antetokounmpo defending both respectively. In fact, players are shooting 17% worse than their normal FG% when guarded by Holiday this postseason…
Ultimately, guys like Williams, Horford, Daniel Theis, and Derrick White could see some more minutes if Antetokounmpo gets tired out down the stretch, especially switching on Tatum or Brown when they come in on drives. It will allow the Boston big men to invite a winnable matchup against Brook Lopez and have lanes to make some plays on offense.
As for Milwaukee though, they’ll don’t necessarily need a third star to step up offensive alongside Antetokounmpo and Holiday. Quite frankly, the Bucks may not be game planning to replace Middleton’s with just one player so expect the team to turn to the likes of Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen, who both have the potential to have a field day from beyond the arc.
When it all comes down to who wins this series in a best-of-seven, it’s tough to bet against either squad, but this should go in favor of the Celtics. Although the defending champs have yet to do something to make anyone doubt their capabilities in the postseason, this matchup puts Antetokounmpo in a great position to thrive, but not win. At the end of the day, Boston gets the job done (not to say that the Bucks don’t) as they have a record of 39-12 since December 31st, 2021.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
Grizzlies [2] vs. Warriors [3]
If you want an absolute shootout/electrifying matchup, this is the series for you. Golden State is back like they never left with their first series win since their last trip to the postseason in 2019 as the Grizzlies have won their first playoff series since 2015. The Warriors, unlike their opening-round matchup, will begin this series on the road in Memphis against the same team that eliminated them from last season’s play-in tournament…
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Fortunately, the Warriors got a few days of rest under their belt as the Grizzlies just had one day off before diving back into action for the conference semifinals. Those extra days of rest could pay dividends, especially in Game 1. If Golden State plans on stealing a game in Memphis, it has to be the first one by taking advantage of a young inexperienced squad.
The key takeaway from Memphis’ opening-round series vs. the Timberwolves was their comeback wins and coming out of ridiculous 20-point deficits. As respectable as that is, it’s not going to work against the Warriors who will keep their foot on the gas and let it rain. As long as Curry, Poole, and Thompson are controlling the tempo on offense and Draymond Green is staying out of foul trouble while holding it down on defense, the Warriors should have no issue getting off to a strong start.
Meanwhile, Stephen Curry has found his way back to the starting lineup alongside the firepower the Warriors have on offense with the likes of Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins as a fringe fourth-option… things could go sideways for the Grizzlies fast.
2022 Playoff Stats
As good as Golden State is on offense, Green, Kevon Looney, and Gary Payton III are going to have to step it up defensively and force the ball out of Ja Morant’s hands when he drives, or better yet, force him to shoot. Despite averaging a near triple-double against Minnesota with 21.5 points, 10.5 assists, and 8.7 rebounds, the former No. 2 pick struggled from the field shooting 38.6% and an abysmal 20.0% from beyond the arc. Clearly not good enough to keep up with any of the Warriors’ top three scorers which is why Memphis will turn to Desmond Bane and take some of the pressure off Morant on offense.
Bane averaged 24 PPG with shooting splits of 50/48/90% in the first round, enough to match the capabilities of Thompson. Dillion Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Tyus Jones, and Jaren Jackson are all among other notable names to keep an eye on, but Morant and Bane should likely lead the charge on offense.
Ultimately, the playoff inexperience for Memphis is too alarming to ignore, especially against a Warrior team that has won 19 of their 21 playoff series since 2015. Pair the offensive likes of Curry, Thompson, and Poole with a defensive guru in Green, who is forcing opposing players to shoot 11.6% worse than their normal FG%, it should lead to another series win.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
Heat [1] vs. 76ers [4]
What could’ve been a matchup for the ages has quickly turned into anything but that after news emerged of Joel Embiid suffering a right orbital fracture and mild concussion in Philadelphia’s Game 6 win in Toronto. The MVP candidate is out indefinitely which gives the top-seeded Heat a lopsided matchup that should go in their favor.
It’s simply impossible to replace Embiid who led the league in scoring, then averaged 26.2 points and 11.3 rebounds through the opening round of the postseason. It’s mainly going to come down to James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris to push this to at least a six-game series, giving Embiid an outside chance to potentially return.
2022 Playoff Stats
As formidable as Philly’s supporting cast is, without Embiid it seems too tough to match up with the depth Miami has on their roster. Here’s a closer look at the talent across the board in the Heat’s opening round gentleman’s sweep over the Hawks.
Jimmy Butler: 30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in 4 games
Max Strus: 14.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 5 games
Victor Oladipo: 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in 2 games
Bam Adebayo: 12.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists in 5 games
Tyler Herro: 12.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 5 games
Butler realistically should average in the 20s as guys like Oladipo (who should see more minutes), Adebayo, and Herro should step it up a notch in this series, especially with Embiid’s absence on the defensive side of the ball. Miami could flat-out sweep Philly, but I’ll give them the benefit of taking game 3 or 4 at home and forcing a Game 5 in South Beach. At that point in time, it would be foolish of Philly to rush Embiid back from injury in a must-win game, especially with the potential of causing a more serious long-term injury.
Prediction: Heat in 5
Suns [1] vs. Mavs [4]
Phoenix may have been the best team in the regular season, but in the playoffs, they sure haven’t played like it… Although the Suns did take care of business against New Orleans in six games, it was a bit of an underwhelming opening round performance as the loss of Devin Booker really swung some games in favor of the Pelicans.
As much as that makes sense, it’s a bit concerning. The Suns managed to win a franchise-record 64 games and thrived even when Chris Paul missed time in the backend of the regular season. However, when Booker missed a majority of games, Phoenix didn’t look amazing on both sides of the ball, especially down the stretch, but Paul was able to do his thing all series long and racked up 68 assists and only nine turnovers. Overall the “point god” has averaged 22.3 points and 11.3 assists while shooting 56.7% from the field. He should continue to average a strong double-double against a Mavs defense that has shown its weaknesses at times.
Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images
Dallas doesn’t have a true or strong big man which could cost them on both sides of the ball as DeAndre Ayton averaged 21 PPG and 10 RPG while shooting 70% from the field in the opening round vs. the Pelicans. On top of that opposing players are shooting 11% worse than their normal FG% when guarded by Ayton which ranks second among bigs defensively to Miami’s Bam Adebayo.
Dallas will have to rely on the backcourt of Luka Donic and Jalen Brunson to give this team a fighting chance against the top-seeded Suns. Doncic, who initially missed time with a calf strain in the opening round vs. Jazz, returned on the backend of the series and racked up 29.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists through the final three games.
Meanwhile, Brunson shined in Doncic’s absence but fit in well as the second option after his teammate’s return averaging 27.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG with shooting splits of 48/36/85%. Interestingly enough, Brunson has the most total points this postseason but should see a far tougher matchup against Phoenix who has Paul, Ayton, and defensive player of the year candidate Mikal Bridges locking up opposing teams.
Dallas has the firepower on offense to push this series to six or better yet, seven games. We have yet to see a playoff series hit seven games this postseason, but if there’s a matchup that has the potential to do so, it could and should be this one. Ultimately, the Mavs are going to fall short as Doncic won’t single-handily be able to take over for four of the seven games in this series. Although Phoenix looks capable of ending this series in six, I’m rooting for a seven-game series, still in favor of the defending Western Conference champs as Booker should hopefully be off minutes restriction by then and go back to averaging 23.0 points while shooting above 48% from the field and beyond the arc.
