Into the Wild...
Super Wild Card Weekend
WINter is here and the 2021-22 postseason is set to be underway in the first-ever “Super Wild Card Weekend” featuring contests from Saturday through Monday. The Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers are the top-seeded teams which means they won’t see playoff action until next weekend (playing the lowest winning seed of the wild card in the AFC and NFC respectively).
Five of the six games this weekend are regular-season rematches with the 49ers @ Cowboys being the lone contest that didn’t meet over the past 18 weeks… now it’s playoff time!
Raiders @ Bengals - Jan. 15; 4:30 p.m. ET
The NFL could not have chosen a better matchup for the first postseason tilt than this one. The Bengals may be in the playoffs for the first time since 2015, however the franchise has not won a playoff game since the 1990 Wild Card round (30 straight seasons without a playoff win is the longest active drought in the NFL). Meanwhile the Raiders enter this week with their own postseason drought of 18 consecutive season without a playoff win.
To make this matchup all the more enticing, this is the first Wild Card contest with both quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Derek Carr) making their playoff debuts since 2017. Interestingly enough though, the home QB has won eight of the last nine such matchups. In this case Burrow is on the right side of history and he will have Saturday to prove so.
QB Stats in 2021 Season
Burrow is not only the better quarterback, but he happens to be taking on the tougher defense. Las Vegas’ defense has an NFL-high 33.6 QB pressure rate, and an NFL-low 14.4 blitz rate this season. On top of that their secondary has allowed just the 4th-fewest rec yards to wide receivers this season. This week though, it’s tough to see the Raiders hold their ground in Paul Brown Stadium, a venue that Burrow has averaged 331.3 pass YPG at this season (most pass YPG at home in the NFL). With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at Burrow’s disposal, Las Vegas faces an uphill battle.
Meanwhile the the Raiders will heavily rely on Derek Carr to carry them to victory as the team is 4-0 in games this season when he has a 100+ passer rtg (6-7 with sub-100 rtg). Interestingly enough the Raiders are the first team since at least 1940 with 10+ wins and a point diff of -50 or worse in the same season. Playing from behind is a situation this team has been in one too many times, especially against a Cincinnati offense that has averaged 27.1 PPG this season.
The Bengals outscored the Raiders 32-13 earlier this season in Week 11 and although many wouldn’t expect as dominant of a performance, a win doesn’t seem far-fetched.
Score: 31-26, Bengals Win.
Patriots @ Bills - Jan. 15; 8:30 p.m. ET
It’s round three between these two AFC East rivals with Mac Jones leading the Patriots into Buffalo against Josh Allen. Jones and Allen have each won a game against one another this season, so this contest will break the tie giving the winner bragging rights. However, when it comes to New England, it’s tough to ignore Bill Belichick’s postseason resume. Belichick is 3-7 as head coach in the postseason vs teams that beat him that season (lost 5 straight) and he takes on HC Sean McDermott who is 2-0 in home playoff games (0-3 on the road).
The Bills seem to not only have the upper hand on the sidelines, but also on the field with their stout defense taking on a rookie QB in Jones. In fact, rookie starting QBs are 0-3 vs the #1 scoring or total defense in the postseason in the Super Bowl era (Buffalo is #1 in both categories). To make matters worse, rookie QBs have an abysmal record of 2-8 as starters in the postseason since 2010 (both rookie wins were against other rookie starting QBs).
Steven Senne | Credit: AP
An uphill battle seems like an understatement for New England, however, with the weather set to be in the single-digits, Belichick’s squad has a fighting chance to keep things close all four quarters. Ultimately though, you can only keep Allen and his top target Stefon Diggs down for so long.
Diggs has averaged 84.4 rec YPG in 5 career games vs Patriots and has 100+ rec yards along with 1+ rec TD in three straight home playoff games. To make matters worse, Buffalo leads the NFL with a +194 point diff this season (highest in team history) and has scored 25+ points in 13 games this season (most in the NFL).
It’s something to keep an eye on as New England is 0-5 this season when allowing 25+ points and trailing by double digits at halftime in three of their last four games isn’t exactly trending in the right direction…
Score: 20-16, Bills Win.
Eagles @ Buccaneers - Jan. 16; 1:00 p.m. ET
It’s a week 6 rematch between the Eagles and Bucs to kick off the NFC playoff games on Sunday. Philadelphia is the lowest seed in the conference and will head to Tampa Bay to take on the defending champs. But more importantly, Tom Brady takes a trip down memory lane as this will mark his first playoff game vs. Eagles since losing Super Bowl LII to the franchise during the 2017 postseason. This is the 5th playoff rematch between a starting QB and a team that he previously lost to in the Super Bowl. All four previous such QBs lost the rematch.
Nick Foles was the signal-caller in that Super Bowl and this time Brady takes on Jalen Hurts in the wild card which seems favorable as the future Hall of Famer is 11-2 in the postseason against QBs age 25 or younger. However, Hurts is in a very intriguing matchup…
Sunday will mark the 5th postseason meeting in NFL history between the pass yards leader (Brady) and the QB rush yards leader (Hurts) from the regular season. The QB rush yards leader won all four previous matchups. But before getting ahead of ourselves, it’s worth noting that the Eagles are 0-6 this season vs teams that have made the playoffs.
Eagles 2021 Season Stats
It’s safe to temper defensive expectations, however, the weather could play a factor in this game.
“Having said that, you can get a light passing shower during the game, sort of behind the cold front,” Meteorologist Leigh Spann explained. “It’s going to be drying out, it’s just also going to be very gusty so you’ll need some cold weather gear.”Unfortunately, even as we are drying out, the weather will still present some uncooperative elements for game day, Southwesterly winds between 12-17 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph. With breezy conditions, the game could be uncomfortably cool at times. Temperatures will be dropping down through the 60s during the gameThe rain and wind could make this matchup a whole lot closer than it should be giving Philly a fighting chance. Tampa Bay has tossed the pigskin on 66+ percent of their plays through the regular season. They may need to rely on the run game a bit more than usual early on in this matchup. It’s going to be ugly but the defending champs should be able to take this one at home and host the divisional round next week.
Score: 27-23, Buccaneers Win.
49ers @ Cowboys - Jan. 16; 4:30 p.m. ET
Arguably one of the best and most historic matchups of the week sees these two storied franchises clash in the postseason for the first time since 1994. Interestingly enough, the last four times the 49ers and Cowboys met in the playoffs, the winner went on to win the Super Bowl (1994, 1993, 1992, 1981). Super Bowl aspirations seem so close yet so far, but based on how both of these teams have been playing off late, it’s not the craziest thought for fans to fantasize at a title run for their respective teams.
Last 5 Games Stats
High powered offenses is an understatement, but although San Francisco averages more total yards over their last five games, they have racked up 24.8 PPG compared to Dallas’ 35.4 PPG in the same span. Perhaps that comes down to redzone execution, but one thing for sure is that their defense has turned the corner under new coordinator DeMeco Ryans.
49ers 2021 Season
To get a better idea of the data, although the 49ers offense has fluctuated in their PPG, their PPG allowed has dropped since Week 10 thanks to Ryan’s defensive unit. Through Weeks 1-9 the SF defense allowed 25.3 PPG, 131.6 rush YPG, and racked up 5 takeaways along with 18 sacks. Since Week 10 though the team has allowed a mere 18.1 PPG, 78.6 rush YPG, and tallied 15 takeaways along with 30 sacks. Dominant is an understatement and the Cowboys offense is going to have to keep their foot on the gas all four quarters.
Fortunately when it comes to quarterbacks, Dallas has a pretty good one in Dak Prescott, who leads the NFL with 1,101 pass yards under pressure this season as well as 9 pass TD under pressure (tied for most in NFL). But what makes things problemsome for San Francisco is that the Cowboys this season are the 3rd team since 1960 to lead the NFL in total offense, scoring offense as well as takeaways in the same season. This game could simply come down to which team will capitalize on turnovers and you can account for a fair amount as Jimmy Garoppolo has proved to be vulnerable in six losses this season with 11 giveaways.
The 49ers should have their way on both sides of the ball, especially with Kyle Shanahan’s west-coast offense very Deebo Samuel friendly. Getting the ball in the hands of your top playmaker should pay its dividends in this game, but Dallas may likely assign rookie phenom Micah Parsons with the tall task of keeping Samuel behind the line of scrimmage on rush plays. San Francisco will need to get George Kittle involved more as the star tight end has fewer than 30 rec yards in his last three games (90+ yds in each of previous three games).
Meanwhile the Cowboys offense could be one-dimensional as Ezekiel Elliott has five games with fewer than 10 carries since joining the Cowboys in 2016, with four of those games occurring since Week 11… Fortunately the team welcomes RB Tony Pollard back who plays a big role in the aerial attack where Dallas should see a majority of their production from. It’s tough to see the 49ers secondary keep up against an aerial attack with new-found speedster Cedrick Wilson Jr., CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper to name a few. Dallas just seems like a team that may make that extra play down the stretch to advance to the divisional round.
Score: 31-27, Cowboys Win.
Steelers @ Chiefs - Jan. 16; 8:15 p.m. ET
Ben Roethlisberger’s “last game” seems to be a never-ending headline, but this week there’s certainly more weight to it as a loss on Sunday seems more likely than not. Since 2011, Roethlisberger is 3-6 in the postseason and has a career record of 3-4 in the Wild Card round, tied with Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton for the most such losses in NFL history.
Although he has been on the losing end more times than not off late in the postseason, Roethlisberger has 450+ pass yards and 4+ pass TD in each of his last two playoff games. But it’s safe to temper your expectations for the Steelers legend as he takes on a Chiefs defense that has allowed 10 points or fewer in five straight home games, including a 36-10 beat down when these two teams just met three weeks ago.
Jamie Squire | Credit: Getty Images
Patrick Mahomes has to feel great about this matchup as the star QB has tossed 15 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in six career home playoff starts along with an overall record of 6-0 in the postseason vs QBs not named Tom Brady (0-2 vs Brady).
The Chiefs have the Steelers figured out and it’s tough to see a whole lot change in the span of three weeks. It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh is 8-0-1 when allowing fewer than 24 points this season (1-7 when allowing 24+ points). Against a QB like Mahomes though, opposing defense can at best do damage control. Kansas City should play host to the highest remaining seed in the AFC next week, possibly an AFC championship rematch against the Bills…
Score: 30-20, Chiefs Win.
Cardinals @ Rams - Jan. 17; 8:15 p.m. ET
The only thing that’s better than playoff football through the weekend is playoff football on a Monday! The Rams play host to their NFC West rivals from Arizona in the wild-card finale, which marks the third matchup of the year between these two teams. The Cardinals bested the Rams 37-20 in Week 4 and then Los Angeles returned the favor with a 30-23 win in Week 14 which ultimately led to the NFC West title.
The Rams could be on the wrong side of history though… over the last eight seasons, there have been six matchups between division opponents in the Wild Card round and the lower seeded team (non-div. winner) are 5-1 in those matchups. However, this rivalry has been a one-sided affair off-late with the Rams winning nine of their last 10 games against the Cardinals. This season though, both teams possess very similar offenses that it’s going to come down to which defense can make the extra play.
Offense Stats this Season
Arizona being the road team in this matchup could be a blessing in disguise as the team is 6-1 away from home thanks Kyler Murray’s play with 15 passing scores, to a mere three interceptions, and a 109.2 passer rating. They are going need Murray at his best as the Rams have a +150 point differential against Arizona under head coach Sean McVay, who has to deal with his own situation at QB.
Matthew Stafford is 7-63 in his career (incl. playoffs) against teams that won 10+ games that season (2-5 this season). With the Cardinals getting J.J. Watt back on the defensive line, one may think Stafford would face an uphill battle, however the Rams QB has a 139.6 passer rating vs the blitz this season (the highest by any qualified QB since 2016). Keep in mind Stafford has WR Cooper Kupp at his disposal alongside the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee.
Arizona has lost six of their last 10 games (including four of their last five) after starting the season 7-0. The team is trending in the wrong direction and taking on a Rams team that may be playing with a bigger chip on their shoulder after last week’s 17-3 meltdown is exactly the mentality McVay would want out of his squad. Los Angeles needs to stay locked in all four quarters to hold off a Cardinal team that has just as good a shot to pull out the win.
