The Divisional...
The Divisional
Raiders @ Bengals - Jan. 22; 4:30 p.m. ET
For the second consecutive week, Cincinnati will play in the opening game of the playoff slate, this time on the road against the top-seeded Titans. What was once a 31-year playoff drought in the third-largest city of Ohio has been snapped, but the Bengals are once again on the wrong side of history as they seek their franchise’s first road playoff win. Fortunately, Tennesee’s track record of being the No. 1 seed yields a record of 0-2 in the playoffs since seeding began in 1975.
On top of that, the Titans are 5-9 all-time in the Divisional Round including a 1-3 recond on their home turf. There’s a lot Cincinnati could be optimistic about heading into this matchup, however, the return of star RB Derrick Henry could crush hopes for the Bengals. Despite missing nine games this season, the reigning offensive player of the year still finished top 10 in attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns this season. Dominant tends to be an understatement when referring to Henry, who is the heart and soul of this Titan offense. It’s going to come by no surprise Tennesee will exploit an abysmal Bengals’ rush defense as the Titans themselves average 141.4 rush YPG as well as 23 rush scores on the season.
Envisioning Henry having a field day isn’t hard to do, however, with Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ two-dimensional offense, Ryan Tannehill is going to have to step it up a notch if the Titans want to pull out the win.
QB Stats since Week 16
Burrow is the first player in NFL history with 1,200+ pass yards, 10+ pass TD, and 0 INT in a 3-game span and is tied for the longest active streak (Packers’ Aaron Rodgers) of notching a 100+ passer rating in five straight games. On the contrary, Tannehill, who is likely to get outplayed by Burrow, has averaged more than 100 fewer pass YPG in the playoffs (133.5) than in the reg. season (236.1) as the Titans starting QB. If Henry is your tailback, I don’t blame you, but ultimately if this turns into a possession-for-possession game, Cincinnati can hang in there and give the Titans a tough time. The Bengals made history last week with their first playoff win since 1990, and this week they could get their first road playoff win ever… If I have to pick an upset this week, it’s going to be this one.
Score: 30-26, Bengals Win.
49ers @ Packers - Jan. 22; 8:15 p.m. ET
Saturday night’s primetime slate takes us to Lambeau Field up north where the Packers play host to an NFC West team in the divisional round for the third consecutive season. After taking care of business against the Seahawks and Rams over the past two seasons respectively, Aaron Rodgers takes on his hometown team, in the San Francisco 49ers. Earlier this season, Rodgers paid a visit to Levi’s Stadium and left in the only way he knew how… 37 seconds left and no timeouts, the reigning MVP found a way to set kicker Mason Crosby up for what was game-winning field goal.
Although a lot has changed since these two NFC powerhouses last played, one thing that has stayed consistent is the 49ers’ playoff success against the Packers. Green Bay has failed to win a playoff game against the Bay Area’s finest since the 2001 Wild Card round when Brett Favre and Jeff Garcia were the respective quarterbacks. Rodgers’ lack of wins against San Francisco is frightening but his individual success displays a 104.7 career passer rating in 12 starts against his hometown squad, the highest by any starting QB vs 49ers all-time (min. 10 starts, incl. playoffs).
However, Rodgers has played host to San Francisco just once in the postseason which was a 2013 wild card contest that resulted in a 23-20 loss, a game that saw Rodgers coming off a broken collarbone injury that season. It’s worth noting California teams are 2-12 when playing in Green Bay in December and January since 1950, with the Rams being the most recent victim. However, of that 2-12 record, the 49ers have both wins…
Sean M. Haffey | Credit: Getty Images
This go around though, Green Bay is not only the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but could see a favorable matchup against Jimmy Garoppolo. Since becoming the 49ers starting QB, Garoppolo has a 63.9 comp pct, 149.8 pass YPG, 7.2 pass yds/att, 2 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 73.3 passer rating in the postseason. Kyle Shanahan’s squad is going rely heavily on the run game and getting the ball in the hands of Deebo Samuel who has racked up 1,770 scrimmage yds this season. The Packers’ defense has looked vulnerable off late allowing 27.3 PPG and 354.3 total YPG since Week 11, with their weakness in stopping the run.
San Francisco may have their way on offense, but defensively some adjustments need to be made. Although the 49ers lead the NFL with a 30.5 pct QB pressure rate when using four or fewer pass rushers this season, Rodgers leads the NFL with a 113.7 passer rating against four or fewer rushers. Pair that up with an offense welcoming LT David Bakhtiari and an arsenal of weapons consisting of Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb to name a few, the 49ers could be in trouble. In fact, Adams has averaged 123.6 rec YPG in five career games vs 49ers (incl. playoffs), the most by any player against San Francisco since 1970 (min. 4 games).
There’s certainly room for the 49ers to stay in this game all four quarters, but Green Bay’s defense welcomes back pass rushers Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercelius as well as CB Jaire Alexander in the secondary. The Packers seem to be getting healthier when it matters most. One and done in the postseason feels like a narrative too surreal for the NFC’s top seed.
Score: 29-24, Packers Win.
Rams @ Buccaneers - Jan. 23; 3:00 p.m. ET
It seems inevitable for Tom Brady to meet a familiar foe every postseason thanks to his two decades of dominance with the Patriots. Last week he beat the Eagles, a team he has both won and lost a Super Bowl against, and this week he takes on the Los Angeles Rams, a franchise he won his first and last Super Bowl with the Patriots. However, since joining Tampa Bay, Brady remains winless against the Rams (both regular-season matchups).
The postseason though is a different animal and the future Hall of Famer has won nine straight Divisional round games dating back to 2011, the longest QB win streak in any round in NFL history. On top of that, the Buccaneers have scored 30+ points in each of their five playoff games with Brady at the helm. They are going to need all the points that they can get against a Rams team that has won six of their last seven games while averaging 27.4 PPG this season. Matthew Stafford is second to Brady in passing touchdowns this season making this the eighth such matchup where the top two passing touchdowns leaders meet in the playoffs.
2021 Season QB Stats
By no surprise, the quarterback that ranked first (in this case Brady) has won five of the previous seven matchups.
That is no discredit to Stafford, who has led the league with a 139.6 passer rating vs blitz this season and should continue that dominance against a Tampa Bay defense that had a 38.1 blitz pct (2nd-highest in NFL). Los Angeles should see some success in their pass rush as Buccaneers’ offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs could be sidelined, forcing Brady into quicker throws or better yet, establish a rushing attack early on. The return of Leonard Fournette should take some pressure off the reigning Super Bowl MVP in the pocket. Although Los Angeles has the firepower to match the Buccaneers, Stafford seems more likely than not to make a costly mistake that Brady may capitalize on.
Score: 27-23, Buccaneers Win.
Bills @ Chiefs - Jan. 23; 6:30 p.m. ET
Arguably the top matchup of the weekend happens to be the final game of the divisional round with the reigning AFC Champs playing host to none other than the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City beat Buffalo in last year’s AFC championship game to clinch their ticket to Super Bowl LV and this time around, it’s a ticket to the conference championship game. Although the stakes may be lower, they have never felt higher for both these squads as a win on Sunday would give them a matchup against the Bengals or Titans, two teams that the Bills and Chiefs are capable of beating. I feel confident in saying that the winner of this game, is likely headed to Super Bowl LVI…
But before getting ahead of ourselves, these two AFC powerhouses had some of the most dominant wins over last week’s wild-card slate that saw both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes toss five touchdowns en route to 20+ points victories. In fact, Sunday’s game marks the first playoff game in NFL history featuring two QBs to each throw 5+ pass touchdowns in their previous playoff game. Their regular-season numbers stack up fairly similarly as well…
Josh Allen: 11-6 record, 63.3 comp pct, 259.2 pass YPG, 36 TD, 15 INT, 92.2 passer rtg
Patrick Mahomes: 12-5 record, 66.3 comp pct, 284.7 pass YPG, 37 TD, 13 INT, 98.5 passer rtg
Although Allen has been phenomenal, he’s going to need to take it up a notch against Mahomes who has averaged 32.2 PPG in the postseason.
Josh Allen Playoffs (5 Games)
Allen has not only struggled in road playoff games but remains winless as well. To make matters worse, since Sean McDermott took over as head coach, Buffalo is 0-3 in the postseason on the road (3-0 at home). But Allen could also use his legs to beat the Chiefs. The Bills franchise QB has averaged 63.0 rush YPG in three career head-to-head matchups against Mahomes, with his most recent game resulting in a dominant 38-20 win. Buffalo’s offense should have their way against Kansas City, but it’s their defense that could be the X-Factor in this matchup.
Stopping Mahomes seems nearly impossible, but coming up with a takeaway or two could be a serious game-changer as the Bills know how to capitalize off of turnovers. It’s worth noting that Buffalo this season is the 8th team since 1970 to win 12+ games by 12+ points in a season (incl. playoffs). A double-digit win seems very unlikely against a Mahomes’ led team, but ultimately walking away with a win? That sounds doable.
