Championship Sunday
After 20 weeks, the NFC and AFC will have their two most resilient teams of the season clash in their respective conference championship matchup. This year features two regular-season rematches with the Bengals and Chiefs meeting 28 days after their Week 17 contest, followed by the 49ers and Rams clashing just three weeks after a thrilling Week 18 tilt.
Interestingly enough, the road teams this week won their respective regular-season matchups against this week’s home teams while also finishing with a 10-7 record (49ers, Bengals) as their opponents finished with a 12-5 record (Rams, Chiefs). On top of that the Chiefs’ lone loss over their last 12 games was to the Bengals in Week 17 as the Rams’ lone loss over their last 8 games was in Week 18 to none other than the 49ers…
It all comes down to just 60 minutes of play and the winners not only will get bragging rights over their conference for the next 12 months but more importantly, book their ticket to Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles…
Bengals @ Chiefs - Jan. 30; 3:00 p.m. ET
Another year, another conference championship at home for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Since losing the conference championship in his first year as a starter, Mahomes has reached the promised land in his last two seasons, winning the former of the two Super Bowls. A big reason for what was an ugly outing in Super Bowl LV is quite frankly because Tom Brady was on the opposing side.
Mahomes, a 26-year-old phenom that has averaged 33.2 PPG in the postseason, looks beatable more times than not when Brady is on the other end. This is key as the Chiefs signal-caller is an undefeated (8-0 record) in the postseason against quarterbacks that don’t don the name “Brady” on the back of their nameplate.
This week he gets Joe Burrow, who some refer to as the next Brady, including Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Based on the last couple of outings, Burrow sure is playing Hall of Fame-caliber football tossing 1,563 yards and 10 touchdowns to just one interception with a 126.1 passer rating over his last four games. The former No. 1 overall pick is going to have to show up when it matters most in order to pull off the upset in Kansas City.
QB Stats 2021
Fortunately, he’ll have rookie sensation and former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase at his disposal. In fact, the QB-WR duo is a perfect 6-0 in their postseason career dating back to college with Burrow averaging 381.8 pass YPG and 22 pass TD and Chase racking up 106.8 rec YPG and 4 rec touchdowns in those games, so best believe he’s going to notch his third straight 100-yard game and better yet, find the endzone for what would be his first career postseason score.
It’s going to be tough to see Chase replicate his 266-yard, three-touchdown outing that he cooked up when these two teams met 28 days ago, but there’s certainly potential for Burrow to have his way all game long. Last week we saw Josh Allen get what he wanted when it mattered the most, not to mention Gabriel Davis’ absurd 201-yard, four-touchdown stat line. It’s no secret that the Chiefs’ secondary is the Achilles heal of this team, however, their offense has made up for it scoring 42 points in each of their last two playoff contests.
Mahomes is one part of the equation, but with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill having 2,048 combined rec yards in games that they have played together in the postseason, it’s tough to see any defense stopping them when the stage is as big as this. Perhaps Burrow and the Bengals have something to say about that, but until proven otherwise IN THE POSTSEASON, I’ll ride with the Chiefs this time after betting against them in the Week 17 tilt.
Frank Clark and the Kansas City pass rush should have their way against a vulnerable Bengals’ offensive line… quite frankly, it’s easy to envision the defense coming generating pressure on Burrow as the game progresses to ultimately squeeze out the win and keep the Lamar Hunt trophy where it belongs.
Score: 32-27, Chiefs Win.
49ers @ Rams - Jan. 30; 6:30 p.m. ET
For the first time in NFL history, a conference championship and the Super Bowl are being played in the same stadium in the same postseason. So in other words, Matthew Stafford and the Rams can’t mess this up… right?
AP Photo/Alex Menendez
Rams fans would wish it were that simple, but after blowing a 17-0 lead just 21 days prior to this conference matchup, and then a 27-3 lead last week in Tampa Bay, this Los Angeles squad has had their fair share of issues down the stretch. Ultimately though, a win is a win and Stafford delivered when it mattered most, hitting Cooper Kupp twice for a combined 64 yards, setting Matt Gay up for a chip-shot field goal to send them home (in a good way) to host the NFC Championship.
Hosting a conference championship should bode well for any team, but if you’re the Rams the last team you would’ve wanted to see in this game is the 49ers. Sean McVay’s squad is winless (0-2 record) against San Francisco this season (14-3 vs all other opponents), and has lost 6 straight games to the 49ers dating back to 2019. It’s safe to say that Kyle Shanahan has the formula to beat McVay’s squad, but a playoff matchup is especially intriguing, given the lack of production from the 49ers’ offense.
Shanahan is going to win this ball game solely behind his run game, but that alone won’t be enough to take down the Rams. San Francisco is going to need to be a two-dimensional offense and that’s where Jimmy Garoppolo comes into play. The former second-round pick has fewer than 175 pass yards in each of his 4 career playoff wins and has averaged a mere 146.0 pass YPG in his playoff career, the fewest by any starting QB in the postseason in the last 30 seasons (min. 5 starts). To make matters worse, entering this Sunday’s tilt, the 49ers have scored just two touchdowns in their 20 offensive possessions this postseason.
It’s going to be the Deebo Samuel show all day long as the all-pro wideout has racked up 162 touches, 1,963 scrimmage yds, and 15 touchdowns this season. But Garoppolo is going to have to make more plays down the stretch for San Francisco to pull off what many may view as an upset…
One thing the 49ers can bank on is their defense showing up and showing out. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the 49ers have five players with 6+ QB pressures this postseason. To put things into perspective, no other team has more than two such players! It’s going to be interesting to see how things pan out against Matthew Stafford this week who loves to play against the blitz but remains mediocre when the pressure isn’t necessarily at its highest.
Stafford vs. 2021 49ers
Stafford thrives against San Francisco when they blitz with a near-perfect passer rating, averaging 12.5 yds/attempt and two touchdowns (zero interceptions). On the contrary, when the defensive coordinator doesn’t dial up the blitz number, Stafford averages 5.8 yds/attempt, tossing two touchdowns and four interceptions. The 49ers’ defensive line looks good enough to not be blitzing more times than not and pressure Stafford. The veteran QB needs to make sure to not force things downfield, especially to Odell Bekcham Jr. as Stafford has a 10.0 comp pct, 1 pass TD, 3 INT, and a 43.3 passer rating when targeting the star wideout on deep passes this season.
However, with Kupp, that’s a problem the 49ers are going to have trouble with. The emergence of Beckham Jr. is one thing, but Kupp has been nothing short of phenomenal all year long with 163 touches, 2,209 scrimmage yds, and 18 scores. Although the Rams have trouble keeping a lead, if they were to have a final say similar to last week’s outing in Tampa Bay to hit the game-winning field goal, there’s no reason to bet against Stafford when it matters the most.
Although the 49ers defense is going to have their way and force some turnovers, it’s going to be in the hands of Garoppolo and the offense to capitalize against a Rams defense that has shown a glimpse of hope with Von Miller finding his place alongside Aaron Donald. It may be a “red out” in SoFi Stadium, but the stage doesn’t get any bigger in Stafford’s career, so best believe, he will deliver.
